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"I'll be sitting in the same seat by 2027," Starmer declared, noting that if our interview proceeded smoothly, he might welcome us into his official residence for a follow-up talk in 2026.

For a PM, there's never any downtime for prime ministers. Just an hour before we sat down, the PM had been in calls with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to understand what on earth had happened in Venezuela, where his key ally, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When our interview, which was far more extended than typical, had finished, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

With the new year begins, Starmer seems to have had a kind of a refresh. Maybe even just a bit of relaxation with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

This seemed to have left him in improved morale than at the difficult conclusion of 2025, a terrible political year for him.

But are he and his allies being unrealistic if they reckon his standing are set to improve?

Leadership Questions

The grisly truth for the leader is that many of his colleagues think he's not very good at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and oust him sooner rather than later.

However Starmer was dismissing such talk during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he told me he'd be "judged at the poll", maintaining nobody would remove his electoral mandate from him – even if the most effective strategy of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 may be for Labour to replace its leader.

"We are in the struggle of our generation and I intend to lead us," he declared.

The May Elections

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be judged long before then – in a huge set of elections in May across the UK. He sought to argue, perhaps excessively, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But although he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no circumstances under which he would resign, should a his colleagues contested his leadership for the job, if those elections be very poor for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He attempted to explain his unpopularity by saying the voters was understandably anxious for things to get better. He aimed to convince the interviewer, and the nation, that the coming months would be a change.

The economic situation would improve notwithstanding rising unemployment, he argued, when policies the government put in place during their initial rocky year began to show results.

• He committed to close asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, but he did not put a firm date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it wasn't a foregone conclusion, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any point since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He stated for the first time that Western allies were now discussing how to integrate US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to guard a possible peace.

His big argument is that in 2026 the country will "see an improvement".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have communicated with greater vigour than I've seen from him for a while – less tense, maybe, with more time to talk.

But despite facing calls from many directions for a more decisive strategy, with greater political direction, more vigour, more pace and more urgency, his points were well-known ones.

Given that he is in this much political difficulty, does he need a different script?

No administration, and certainly not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, gets everything its as desired.

The Prime Minister's problems are not just because government is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have faltered, including in the last few weeks.

Controversies and Dangers

The prime minister admitted that he regretted saying he was "pleased" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an backlash when comments he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Sir Keir blamed "the system" for not catching what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is facing obvious political risks as the year gets going. His close relationship with the US president acquires a new risk after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over many years, the thought he would be at ease with this kind of intervention seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He stated he was a "career-long advocate of international law" but the public "simply haven't got the complete details at the moment".

Opponents called for him to denounce it before the interview. And the government is likely to face more pressure to give an clear view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also consistently been growing pressure in the Labour ranks to undo or remake some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM disputes he's doing that, but his new specific pledge to align more closely with the EU's single market – the vast economic European trading zone – will likely trigger accusations that he is going back on his vow never to try to undo the choices that followed Brexit.

A decision to integrate into more of the single market will please many on his side of the party, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to